Mayflies Live on the Internet

How long does a link last?

It turns out that new links published in social media have a similar life span to the Blue Wing Olive.  Links receive half the clicks they'll ever get within hours.

An adult mayfly lives for 30 minutes to a day depending on species; have non-working mouths and a digestive track filled with air.  They have one purpose..... but this is a marketing blog. 


Source.

NYT recently highlighted some Bit.ly research on the window of time during which clicks occur for a new link posted in various places.  Here's the chart....



For Twitter and Facebook half the clicks will happen in around 3 hours (left peaks) ; for YouTube it is 7 hours (middle bump).  

At a Social Commerce Exchange meeting yesterday @DrewConrad presented some figures of what he has found at Zagg.   The first five hour figures of their  12 Days of Christmas and iPad-a-Day promotions confirm this type of trend - 35-40% of the new fans came in the first week of the six weeks reported.  

So, what do I take the implications of this to be...it is like fly fishing. 

1. We need to be constantly coming up with ways to produce interest - meetings and approval should be kept to an absolute minimum.  If a fly isn't working, I change it - if a link doesn't produce in a day, put out a new one.    If does work, put it someplace else. 
2. The attention span impacts the lifespan - YouTubers are likely more captivated by the surrounding content and not the flow itself.   I need to make more of an impact in fast moving water so will use an attractor - the streaming nature of Twitter and Facebook suggest the same need for stimulating, high impact links.   In calm water, where there is more dwell time I'll use a more natural fly - something similar might work in YouTube.
3. Analysis time period of a link is daily; analysis of campaigns is longer, but done in the aggregate.  Looking at one link over a long period of time doesn't make sense.   Success at fishing is measured over the long term, not an individual cast.   

We've always known links work - we get the reports, but this suggests we have to think about constantly changing them up to create a continuous sense of interest.  This is very different than the traditional view of brand marketing which tries to get at the sustainable, long term essence.  

Social, Mobile, and Transaction Segmentation

What opportunities exist in an inter-connected world?

A few days ago a colleague asked around if anyone had an approach to segmentation in a world when social media is integrated with mobile and retail transaction data. So, here's the answer I came up with in an attempt to answer the questions: What did they do before buying? what content did they consume before trying?  


Customer transaction data is like a silent movie, we see the final action but don't understand the nuances of how they got there.  Just before the 'submit button' or landing page is a vast region of content and interactions that most likely influenced the choice a consumer made, we just can't see it and if we can, we can't make sense of the enormous quantities of granular data without some type of framework.

Our objective as marketers is to align solutions with customer's needs to the mutual satisfaction of both.  And to do that we need to not only understand the benefit provided by the product/service but also how the choice was ultimately made and the path to purchase.   So, the first opportunity is to segment people on what technologies, sources, devices etc. people use to consume information - are they mobile, social, or site users?

It is also generally accepted that various types of information are utilized when making a decision - we decide emotionally based on aspirations and needs, we defend the decision rationally based on facts and figures.   This content can be divided into several types that influence choice – emotional or brand, promotional or incentive, informational or reference and communal or recommendation.  If we could tag the content consumed according to such a framework then we have a new opportunity to segment based on content type.

Put the two together and we can build a picture of 'content consumption' based on type and channel.

By linking transactional data (customer value and product mix) where we understand the value of a customer based on LTV, visits or other metric we can create a series of product-specific Paths to Purchase that map content consumption to their value to the organization.   

So take for an example a segmentation scheme based on standard RFM (recency, frequency, and monetary) metrics that produces for groups:  Best, Frequent, Spenders and Uncertain.   Over lay that on the type of content consumed and you might find patterns that impact how you market.   A hypothetical view might look like the following chart.   

For each value-based segment there are two content consumption segments:

• Best customers, those with above average spend and visits, either use branded content, maybe the self-help site you created, or they use a lot of recommendations from social sites.
• Frequent customers who spend less than the average but shop often, are either deal shoppers or search driven.
• Spenders, those who spent a lot but on only one transaction, are either attached to brand as a 'badge' or use information and search to find you.
• Uncertains, those with low transaction value and count, rely on incentives or the recommendations of others.  

The possibilities are endless; there just might be something to this idea....

Loyalty: Goal or Objective

How do we treat the concept of loyalty?

Lately I've been reading a lot on customer experience, CRM maturity models, etc. in the context of analyzing the performance of customer marketing programs.   And while I read a lot about loyalty as part of the strategy I don't see the metric I can map to it.   Somewhere in the reams of stats, metrics, spreadsheets and data dumps there has to a number I can report as success or failure, doesn't there?

Without a quantifiable metric, the concept of loyalty remains a lofty goal- something we aspire to.  And without a link between the goal and the program we run the risk of getting off track and doing what we can measure and claiming it as a success.     Too many times I've heard "we can't measure loyalty so we'll report time on site, posts, opens as the collective measure of engagement." 

If we want loyal customers, then we have to define it in a way that we know we have one when we see one. 

Early in my career I did simulated test marketing where depth of repeat, or the odds of making additional purchases, drove the ultimate success or failure of product.  We could buy trial, but if the product didn't deliver sales eroded.   Is it that simple?

Loyalty, as an objective, is the probability of a consumer making the next purchase.   For a given brand, the odds of repeat increase as the number of transactions increases.   The more often I buy, the more likely I'll buy again.   This simple data can be plotted as a curve and when it starts to stabilize somewhere between 50% and 80% we put a stake in the ground and say 'there is loyalty' because the value of future transactions starts to increase.  

So, here's what I'm telling clients:  "a customer is loyal when the probability of repeat is greater than x%."   Now we simply need to focus on two questions.

1. How do we keep them?   Here reward strategies are more appropriate than encouragement ones; they've already decided to buy your brand.  Surprise, or intermittent reinforcement, is a very powerful motivator as is exclusivity and uniqueness.  
2. How do we get more of them?  It is not unusual to find less than 15% of a business where this condition is true.   The path to loyalty goes through "Thank You" - the acknowledgement of the first transaction based on the fact that first impressions are lasting.  

Now my presentations to the executive team align....

Marketing in the Age of Channel Blur

How should we approach planning when everything is interactive?

We used to talk about multiple channels when separate (and possibly not coordinated) campaigns were executed by the experts in their respective silos.  Then along came Integrated Marketing Communication (ICM) that taught us to think multi-channel and to use a coordinated approach often based on timing, theme and message.    An underlying premise of both these planning models was that we as marketers were trying to reach you as consumer via a predefined route.

But when the network effect of sharing takes over and interesting content jumps the boundaries of the delivery vehicle maybe our thinking needs to change.  

• First, since the relationship between marketer and consumer is by no means exclusive we need to think like we're simply a participant or conductor in the communication plan not its sole controller.  The focus should be on the needs first, not the channel.  This is an area where content marketing has made an impact with questions like "What would help consumers?" 
• Second, given the rapid change in technology and the fact that it is now highly personal and portable we need to think more about how content moves across devices and forms and less about it being designed and optimized for a specific channel.   Today, digital content can be shared across and accessed from nearly any platform creating a blur.  Use a QR code and we're asking ourselves "Where does print end, mobile start and the web sit?" 
• Third, consumers aren't likely to consciously sit down and ask themselves I wonder who placed or published the content in a given channel.  As a result, the planning of paid, owned and earned media seems somewhat out of sync with actual consumer thinking.   And when TV drives search or social activity we end up asking "How do we combine channels to measure the aggregate affect?"

Maybe, we should abandon the concept of 'channel' as the top-level way to devlop a plan.

7 Questions Raised by Situational Influence

Can understanding the situation improve our marketing?

Yes, but we've got work to do. 

The concept of 'Situational Influence' was recently shared by Jeff Wilson on the The Social CMO Blog. Using the analogy of solving the 'getting wet problem' caused by rain with either an umbrella, shelter or ark the article makes a good case for thinking about the decision making process based on the situation we find ourselves in.  

The basics keys on Situational Influence…

1. Situations directly affect action.
2. Situations rise in priority according to urgency.
3. Urgency drives immediacy of action
4. We are oblivious to all of it.

These raise some interesting questions for marketers that need more thinking than I'm incapable of doing today, but its a start of a new to do list.  

1. Should we be marketing to the situation and not the person?
2. Can influence be broken down into components that marketing can impact?
3. Are there dimensions of content that can be combined in various ways to help shape decisions?
4. Does the weight given one dimension of content differ across need states?
5. Are different channel, content combinations more effective at one time over another?
6. How does the fact that interactions occur unseen impact our media planning?
7. Should we think in terms of helping people choose rather than in specific responses?

What should we also be asking ourselves?

Revisiting the CRM to Social CRM Migration

Did CRM miss the point? 

CRM is (was) often described as 'delivering the right message, to right person, at the right time'.   But who decides on 'right'?   If the marketer is doing it, then it is probably wrong since we are clearly biased.   

Messages do not and can not stay on point in a world where we can all create, edit and publish our own versions. About the only type of content that is safe from being completely repurposed is promotional; incentives in terms of offers usually aren't changed by consumers (although they will try.) The aspirational or emotional content will clearly be used as a badge - positively or negatively - and forms the basis of personal expression. 

If consumers seek, stumble upon, actively receive and passively absorb messages the idea that 'we deliver' is also off the mark.  We're not the only delivery channel by a long-shot; nor do we have control once a message is out there.   The communal aspect of content suggests that sharing of recommendations etc. may be of equal or greater importance in consumer choice.   In fact, our customers are often more qualified to understand 'right person' than we are.

How do we rethink communicating in a world that is really "we don't know what is said, we don't know who got it, and we don't know when it was received?"

Digital is Obsolete

What will the digital world look like in 4 years?

An excellent piece on the growth of the digital life from Neo Labels shared by my colleague Ian Barkley. 

At some point we should probably just drop the adjective 'digital'.   We no longer talk about 'jet planes' or 'digital phones' - to us they're just planes or phones.   And when we drop the adjective we can think about bringing all content distribution vehicles together.   The fact that the smartphone makes everything interactive also helps.

I did see a magazine in that 'digital house' didn't I?

15 Sources on How and Why to "Thank Customers"

Should you tell your customers "thank you"?

As part of our planning about how we can better help our clients our strategy guy Jeff put together a list of thoughts on the topic of how should a company say thank you.   Here it is.

Sprouter:  Why a Thank You program? It can beat a loyalty program.

LinkedIn:  "Marketing and Sales" Group Q&A

Customersrock: Thanking makes an impact

AML: 18 Ways to Thank Customers PDF

Jim Novo's thoughts on loyalty

Bizjournals: Shocked at companies that don't thank customers

Prime Performance: The power of thanks at banks

Green Industry Pros: Five Inexpensive Ways to Say Thank You

Traffic Builders: Thanking customers with a personal approach

Management Help: Onboarding new customers

Banking My Way: Banks are pushing referral programs

Amadeus: Including referral program in thank you program

Idle Air: Example of new customer referral offer as part of 'Thank You'

stylistbuzz: Sample of a simple new customer thank you card

Scrbd: Sample new customer welcome letter

Fedex: Sample welcome landing page


I'm sure there are many other sources and examples, please add your favorites....

Social Media vs. Social Technology

Does it matter what we call it?

Earlier this week I sat on a panel at a Utah AMA event.  One of the questions we fielded was: What's the next big thing in 'social media'?   Now, if any of us on the panel knew the answer, we probably wouldn't have been on the panel - we'd be busy launching it.

The point I made was to first throw out the word 'media' and replace it with 'technology'.   The reason was that media is often associated with business, marketing and advertising and that clouds our thinking about the art of the possible.   Two of the biggest platforms - Facebook and YouTube - started as technical solutions to the real and personal problems of the founders, not as business tools for delivering messages.  Based on the feedback, this line of thinking resonated well with the audience.

So, if there is something that frustrates you and your insights allow you to imagine a solution that leverages or facilitates human interaction then it might be the next big thing in social technology.   Whether it is media, is a chapter to be written later.

Tetherless Brands

What to read on the plane?

Just finished Rick Mathieson's books "Branding Unbound" and "On Demand Brand".   Both books cover the world of marketing in a wireless, digital age.   They take the approach of presenting a set of 'rules' of guidelines and then follow them up with interviews with industry players to make the points more personal and interesting. 

Fascinated to see the change in the examples and maturity of marketers over the five-year time frame between publishing dates - 2005 and 2010. 

Shaping Decisions

What kind of information do we seek?

In order to make a decision we process information from a variety of sources.   Not a terribly earth shattering idea in that statement.  But can we create a framework that helps navigate a world where consumers process a wide variety of information feeds (and I'm being general as opposed to focusing on RSS and the like) in a decidedly non-linear fashion. 

Given that information is processed to come to a decision, opinion, or a better understanding then the question becomes what kinds of information do we leverage in each situation?  Are there situations where different types of information play a more important role?   If we can categorize information and map it to personal objectives then we have a better chance of developing successful marketing programs.   

As a thought starter, there might be four types of information that shape a decision.

1. Promotional: product, price and place.  The focus is on incentive.
2. Emotional: brand.  The focus is on aspirations.
3. Informational: rational and comparative.  The focus is on reference and supporting evidence.
4. Communal: shared, user generated, social.   The focus is on recommendations. 

The weight an individual gives to a particular type of information could vary depending on intent, need state and prior experience. 

• Intent: buy, seek, share, discover, discuss
• Need: latent, chronic or acute as driven by timing and intensity of problem resolution
• Experience: collective perception from use or exposure. 

If I need a new hot water heater then recommendations and incentives might make the most sense right now.   On the other hand, if I'm browsing for a new car then a combination of aspirations and factoids might be more appropriate to narrow down the options.  

As marketers, how do we ensure the experience is consistent across content types?   How do we orchestrate the process and exude some influence?

Rembering Is a Hard Thing to Do

Was that red A4 a six speed or an automatic?

There are several scenarios where choice is so complicated that we simply can't remember the facts of the options - real estate and buying cars come to mind.   In both scenarios we are usually looking at a collection of things over a period of time while we are out and about.  Since decisions are driven by emotions supported by facts, we need to combine research, tactile feel, and aspirational thoughts. 

• We can research cars on comparative sites like Kelley Blue Book or a dealer's site but we don't know how it feels or how we'll feel.
• We can test drive cars to get that guttural feel about a car's soul, but we're limited as to the research we can do on the lot and we're still missing the emotional connection that brand managers strive for.
• We can read brochures or watch aspirational ads like Cadilac's 2009 spot for CTS featuring Kate Walsh, but we lack research and the touch and feel of steel and leather.

So, what if we could combine all of them together in a unique experience for customers?  Imagine customers being able to research specific cars on-line, drive it while reading reviews, and getting a reminder package at the end of the day that mixes facts, opinions and imagination.

Actually, it is quite possible.  

QR codes are a popular way of linking a physical object (or location) to information and content.  So, what if we remember which cars or houses you looked at (there will be an app for that) and combined the facts with branded assets to create a Brochure for 1.   Imagine a brochure from Bill Sattree's Toyota that included information on the cars you drove today - the FJ, Tundra, and Sequoia - delivered shortly after your visit to the lot.  

Would you exchange your contact information for a tailored set of content? 

The Toothpaste Side of CRM

How fast do customers defect?

It is well known in consumer package goods that a repeat rate (or the percent of customers who buy a second time) needs to be in the 40-50% range for a successful product launch.   In other industries the retention rate may be significantly lower - recently saw one where only 1 in 4 customers came back.   The implication is that only a portion of customer acquisitions are 'net new', i.e. those that grow the business.

If customers, like teeth, tend to decay, then how do we engage them in preventing it or at least slowing it down?

P&G talks in terms of 'moments of truth' - critical decisions that affect the relationship of a brand with a consumer.  The first two below are theirs, I've added a third.  They are...

1. The decision to buy - here we need to make sure that we're in alignment with what customers want.  
2. The decision to buy again - now we have to have delivered, both in marketing and product, a positive experience that met customer expectations.  
3. The decision to make it a habit - now we're talking about engagement and supporting an ongoing and continuous stream of purchases.  

Communication and contact strategies should be aligned to focus on each of these three moments, each with their own strategies and metrics.   Ideas for campaigns might consider...

• Promotions, offers, contests and entrainment for trial
• Welcome Packs and Thank Yous for repeat
• Experiences and participation for long term repeat