Where is all this merger and acquisition going?
As products and companies are acquired or dropped one thing is for certain: What used to be one category will splinter, as all categories do in time. For search it used to be easy - it was just 'search'. But now we're seeing the evolution of two kinds of search:
Commercial Search: the paid activity to redirect people to find (buy) something. In this world the travel agent model of Google is hard to beat. Ad Words, Ad Sense and other link-based routings work just finds.
Recommendation Search: the opinions of others (those we know, trust, or just relate to) represents a completely new type of search and underlying business model. The Facebook, FriendFeed, Twitter and LinkedIn models fit better in this world. In time, this is likely to fragment into personal and professional recommendations.
So, its not so much a question of 'who will win?' but what needs of ours do they best support.