Risky Assertions

What's wrong with executives having opinions?

Well, they're often wrong.

In IBM's recent paper on new media: "Navigating the media divide" there are a number of quotes from people interviewed used to illustrate the divisions in the industry.

Korean infrastructure is so fully developed ... Cell phones are used to control both online and mobile environment.

vs.

People will only use [mobile screens] if they have no other choice.

and

The younger crowd has a stronger and faster influence today than the same age group did 10 to 15 years ago.

vs.

Anytime you 'cross-collateralize' or converge, devices, it remains in the realm of the Gadgetiers. Portability is not key for Massive Passives.

Your business strategy depends on whether you pick option 'a' or 'b'. So here is the dilemma - a strategy depends on choices but choices are often wrong.

As with all technology introductions; what we think will happen doesn't. It neither happens as fast as we thought nor along the same trajectory, i.e. what does happen isn't what we expected at all. Just think of all the predictions:

The world needs five computers.
Cell phone penetration will not reach critical mass.
Internet will replace libraries.

Power Points
1. Stick with the facts; not opinions.
2. Experiment to understand
3. Don't issue a quote about 'won't happen'