It is sad when blogging comes down to threats and personally offensive posts.
Kathy Sierra of "Creating Passionate Users" discusses the impact of personal attacks.
It hurts us all.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Marginal Returns of Perfection
What to do when some says 'ideally'?
Like an upside-down car, the costs of many items on a wish list out-weigh their value. In short, they turtle. There is a strong temptation to deliver on ideals, particularly when stated by senior executives. The result is often over-budget and under-whelming.
Ideals are rarely thought through enough to be thought of as requirements. They are just that - "A conception of something in its absolute perfection."
The features in the ideal category are often not worth the development effort to deliver. It takes a strong constitution and a fair bit of politics to convince people of this.
Like an upside-down car, the costs of many items on a wish list out-weigh their value. In short, they turtle. There is a strong temptation to deliver on ideals, particularly when stated by senior executives. The result is often over-budget and under-whelming.
Ideals are rarely thought through enough to be thought of as requirements. They are just that - "A conception of something in its absolute perfection."
The features in the ideal category are often not worth the development effort to deliver. It takes a strong constitution and a fair bit of politics to convince people of this.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Understanding Search
Where can I find how people find my site?
Hittail is a tool for understanding search traffic put together by the folks at Conner Communications. It is elegant in its simplicity -- it takes search strings, parses them into key words, ranks them into the head and tail, and then makes suggestions about how to improve traffic to a site.
It's a hosted site and all that is required is placing a snippet of code on a site. Free for small sites, reasonable for the rest of the world.
Very useful indeed.
Hittail is a tool for understanding search traffic put together by the folks at Conner Communications. It is elegant in its simplicity -- it takes search strings, parses them into key words, ranks them into the head and tail, and then makes suggestions about how to improve traffic to a site.
It's a hosted site and all that is required is placing a snippet of code on a site. Free for small sites, reasonable for the rest of the world.
Very useful indeed.
Effect of Brand Name on Lead Flow
When is a good thing too much?
Licensing brand names can be good for business; but it can also be bad -- particularly in pay-per-click models. A popular brand like 'American Idol' can work wonders on impressions and clicks but if the lead funnel isn't shaped just right one ends up with a very low conversion rate. The result: extremely high cost-per-sales that risk eroding any or all margin.
Tuning lead flow for brands that attract interest is quite different than generating leads for either targeted, niche or new brands. It turns out you don't want to buy the brand name, you want to buy what the product provides and use the name as leverage. Yes, you get fewer clicks but the guys in finance like the numbers better.
Remember: the product benefit is what ultimately sells.
Licensing brand names can be good for business; but it can also be bad -- particularly in pay-per-click models. A popular brand like 'American Idol' can work wonders on impressions and clicks but if the lead funnel isn't shaped just right one ends up with a very low conversion rate. The result: extremely high cost-per-sales that risk eroding any or all margin.
Tuning lead flow for brands that attract interest is quite different than generating leads for either targeted, niche or new brands. It turns out you don't want to buy the brand name, you want to buy what the product provides and use the name as leverage. Yes, you get fewer clicks but the guys in finance like the numbers better.
Remember: the product benefit is what ultimately sells.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Media Congnosticism
Do you believe in the effects of media?
More specifically, do you believe that different channels impact people differently and that the effects can be measured?
If yes, then 'media agnostic' isn't the right approach since that means 'without knowledge' or more generally something that can't be proven or the individual has no proof and thus ends discussion.
Defining audience targets and then building appropriate media plans for a desired experience outcome absolutely requires understanding how different channels work and interact (like radio impacting awareness among Internet users.)
What we need is more information, analysis, and proof about how things work in the real world.
More specifically, do you believe that different channels impact people differently and that the effects can be measured?
If yes, then 'media agnostic' isn't the right approach since that means 'without knowledge' or more generally something that can't be proven or the individual has no proof and thus ends discussion.
Defining audience targets and then building appropriate media plans for a desired experience outcome absolutely requires understanding how different channels work and interact (like radio impacting awareness among Internet users.)
What we need is more information, analysis, and proof about how things work in the real world.
Risky Assertions
What's wrong with executives having opinions?
Well, they're often wrong.
In IBM's recent paper on new media: "Navigating the media divide" there are a number of quotes from people interviewed used to illustrate the divisions in the industry.
vs.
As with all technology introductions; what we think will happen doesn't. It neither happens as fast as we thought nor along the same trajectory, i.e. what does happen isn't what we expected at all. Just think of all the predictions:
The world needs five computers.
Cell phone penetration will not reach critical mass.
Internet will replace libraries.
Power Points
1. Stick with the facts; not opinions.
2. Experiment to understand
3. Don't issue a quote about 'won't happen'
Well, they're often wrong.
In IBM's recent paper on new media: "Navigating the media divide" there are a number of quotes from people interviewed used to illustrate the divisions in the industry.
Korean infrastructure is so fully developed ... Cell phones are used to control both online and mobile environment.
vs.
People will only use [mobile screens] if they have no other choice.
and
The younger crowd has a stronger and faster influence today than the same age group did 10 to 15 years ago.
vs.
Your business strategy depends on whether you pick option 'a' or 'b'. So here is the dilemma - a strategy depends on choices but choices are often wrong.Anytime you 'cross-collateralize' or converge, devices, it remains in the realm of the Gadgetiers. Portability is not key for Massive Passives.
As with all technology introductions; what we think will happen doesn't. It neither happens as fast as we thought nor along the same trajectory, i.e. what does happen isn't what we expected at all. Just think of all the predictions:
The world needs five computers.
Cell phone penetration will not reach critical mass.
Internet will replace libraries.
Power Points
1. Stick with the facts; not opinions.
2. Experiment to understand
3. Don't issue a quote about 'won't happen'
Friday, March 02, 2007
New News Source
Where do I catch up on daily goings on?
The site Original Signals is a hyper-aggregator of all kinds of news/info sites. Well laid out and organized --- saves me the trouble from going to a variety of sources.
Interesting that is produced by the media company Stillpoint Media, a Dutch web-publisher which is based in Amsterdam.
The site Original Signals is a hyper-aggregator of all kinds of news/info sites. Well laid out and organized --- saves me the trouble from going to a variety of sources.
Interesting that is produced by the media company Stillpoint Media, a Dutch web-publisher which is based in Amsterdam.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Mundane but Critical
Once again, data quality has interrupted a very well laid out process intended to reactivate lapsed customers.
This time the house file had two understandable but damaging problems.
1. The address field was used by customer service for adding commentary based on phone conversations.
2. The first name field was appended with nickname in parentheses.
So, without scrubbing what was promised to be a 'clean' file we ended up with things like
Dear Patricia (Pat but not Patty) our records indicate the contact address is:
356 Sycamore -don't call on Fridays
Randolph, ST - Tuesdays are good in afternoon
Power Points:
1. Ensure everyone understands how information is going to be used across the organization.
2. Enforce data validation entries.
3. Add lots of space for comments.
This time the house file had two understandable but damaging problems.
1. The address field was used by customer service for adding commentary based on phone conversations.
2. The first name field was appended with nickname in parentheses.
So, without scrubbing what was promised to be a 'clean' file we ended up with things like
Dear Patricia (Pat but not Patty) our records indicate the contact address is:
356 Sycamore -don't call on Fridays
Randolph, ST - Tuesdays are good in afternoon
Power Points:
1. Ensure everyone understands how information is going to be used across the organization.
2. Enforce data validation entries.
3. Add lots of space for comments.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
New vs. Traditional Media
When did the change occur?
Remember when it used to be traditional vs. online media? Now the discussion is around social media vs. traditional online media like 'email and ppc'. It's funny how fast things change; in the course of just a short period of time the comparative position became the adjective.
Pretty soon, maybe next week, social media will become traditional and will be replaced by something else.
Remember when it used to be traditional vs. online media? Now the discussion is around social media vs. traditional online media like 'email and ppc'. It's funny how fast things change; in the course of just a short period of time the comparative position became the adjective.
Pretty soon, maybe next week, social media will become traditional and will be replaced by something else.
Things are Always Wrong
Why should we evaluate programs?
Assumptions, like forecasts, are always wrong. What's interesting is understanding why they are wrong. It is the understanding of how current programs work today that makes our jobs interesting. And since nothing is forever, although Google never forgets, tried and true methods that worked in the past run the risk of being irrelevant today -- particularly in Internet marketing.
So, here are my Power Points:
1. Never assume what worked will continue to work.
2. If somebody says "I think..." they're probably wrong.
3. Don't get in the rut of 'set and forget'; it will erode quickly.
4. Tweak, tinker, and test - continuously.
5. Know what you're trying to achieve in the first place.
Assumptions, like forecasts, are always wrong. What's interesting is understanding why they are wrong. It is the understanding of how current programs work today that makes our jobs interesting. And since nothing is forever, although Google never forgets, tried and true methods that worked in the past run the risk of being irrelevant today -- particularly in Internet marketing.
So, here are my Power Points:
1. Never assume what worked will continue to work.
2. If somebody says "I think..." they're probably wrong.
3. Don't get in the rut of 'set and forget'; it will erode quickly.
4. Tweak, tinker, and test - continuously.
5. Know what you're trying to achieve in the first place.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Idol Voting
What's in a word?
Actually, everything on American Idol. Seems that forgetting lyrics is a sure way of getting sent off. Last night a contestant with commercial appeal was sent packing. The fan traffic this morning was that she should have stayed.
In the spirit of tracking opinions; here is a vote for Bailey Brown.
Actually, everything on American Idol. Seems that forgetting lyrics is a sure way of getting sent off. Last night a contestant with commercial appeal was sent packing. The fan traffic this morning was that she should have stayed.
In the spirit of tracking opinions; here is a vote for Bailey Brown.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Marketing Duality
Is something I see content or an ad?
The lines between content and advertising are so blurred that it is much like physics where light behaves as both a particle and a wave. Okay, the concepts of particle and wave don't apply with really small things like those found in quantum physics but when viewed from those terms things behave strangely.
It seems that marketing is moving toward a duality where something we see is both content and advertising. At the scale of TV or even print magazines, it is relatively easy to separate the two concepts. One is used to financially support the other - everybody knows how the game is played.
But what happens when the unit of consumption is very small -- a search result, a blog entry, a posted video, a mobile message? At what point do 'content' and 'advertising' lose their meaning?
The rush to monetize ever-smaller pieces of content may reach a limit where uncertainty creeps into the equation and we're left in search of a completely new explanation and business model. If there are no direct costs of producing content, why do we need advertising?
For a variation of this topic see Steve Smith's post on the impact of mobile messaging on branding.
The lines between content and advertising are so blurred that it is much like physics where light behaves as both a particle and a wave. Okay, the concepts of particle and wave don't apply with really small things like those found in quantum physics but when viewed from those terms things behave strangely.
It seems that marketing is moving toward a duality where something we see is both content and advertising. At the scale of TV or even print magazines, it is relatively easy to separate the two concepts. One is used to financially support the other - everybody knows how the game is played.
But what happens when the unit of consumption is very small -- a search result, a blog entry, a posted video, a mobile message? At what point do 'content' and 'advertising' lose their meaning?
The rush to monetize ever-smaller pieces of content may reach a limit where uncertainty creeps into the equation and we're left in search of a completely new explanation and business model. If there are no direct costs of producing content, why do we need advertising?
For a variation of this topic see Steve Smith's post on the impact of mobile messaging on branding.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Social Search
Why can't I find what I'm looking for online?
On the heels of today's earlier post "Finding Optimal Relevance" Google has released personalized results. The 'one page fits all' model has been replaced with a collective understanding of what you do and possibly who you are in order to improve results.
Not surprising, optimizing for Google tools is recommended. A bit more interesting is "Social Search" - using the searches of others to find results; not unlike collaborative filtering for books.
Maybe I will find that SEM doesn't mean scanning electron microscope.
On the heels of today's earlier post "Finding Optimal Relevance" Google has released personalized results. The 'one page fits all' model has been replaced with a collective understanding of what you do and possibly who you are in order to improve results.
Not surprising, optimizing for Google tools is recommended. A bit more interesting is "Social Search" - using the searches of others to find results; not unlike collaborative filtering for books.
Maybe I will find that SEM doesn't mean scanning electron microscope.
A New Acronym: FOR - Finding Optimal Relevance
What does relevance have to do with technology?
One of the current threads on the marketing blogs is around the value of Search Engine Optimization (SEO). A recent debate is whether it is 'rocket science' or not.
Once again I feel that the tail is wagging the dog and a specialty is taking over the controls of the big picture.
As a searcher, I'm looking for results that match my current intent. (Which is sometimes date dependent and sometimes not; causing a lot of frustration.) So all that matters is relevance. Instead of trying to game the system and optimize around the internal machinations of search engines, why don't we work on Finding Optimal Relevance (FOR goodness sakes). This is a much bigger opportunity than the current SEO landscape.
One of the current threads on the marketing blogs is around the value of Search Engine Optimization (SEO). A recent debate is whether it is 'rocket science' or not.
Once again I feel that the tail is wagging the dog and a specialty is taking over the controls of the big picture.
As a searcher, I'm looking for results that match my current intent. (Which is sometimes date dependent and sometimes not; causing a lot of frustration.) So all that matters is relevance. Instead of trying to game the system and optimize around the internal machinations of search engines, why don't we work on Finding Optimal Relevance (FOR goodness sakes). This is a much bigger opportunity than the current SEO landscape.
Friday, February 09, 2007
The Problem of Choice
When does having choices make it difficult to choose?
I've been straddling the Mac vs. Windows fence ever since we got a G5 at home. At first, frustration -- it didn't work like a PC. We can argue the merits of that statement but 20+ years in Windows some things are ingrained. So I wait.......
But now that Vista is out I'm thinking about my choices. This is where stagnation comes in. There are, count them, six (6) editions.
1. Windows Vista Home Basic
2. Windows Vista Starter
3. Windows Vista Home Premium
4. Windows Vista Ultimate
5. Windows Vista Business
6. Windows Vista Enterprise
I simply don't want that decision forced upon me, I've got enough other things to think about.
I've been straddling the Mac vs. Windows fence ever since we got a G5 at home. At first, frustration -- it didn't work like a PC. We can argue the merits of that statement but 20+ years in Windows some things are ingrained. So I wait.......
But now that Vista is out I'm thinking about my choices. This is where stagnation comes in. There are, count them, six (6) editions.
1. Windows Vista Home Basic
2. Windows Vista Starter
3. Windows Vista Home Premium
4. Windows Vista Ultimate
5. Windows Vista Business
6. Windows Vista Enterprise
I simply don't want that decision forced upon me, I've got enough other things to think about.
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Yahoo Pipes
What's new in the application space?
Yahoo has introduced "pipes" a way of linking disparate sources of data. It must be very interesting since the link to pipes.yahoo.com produces a humorous message:
Our Pipes are clogged! We've called the plumbers!
Glad to see a sense of humor.
Yahoo has introduced "pipes" a way of linking disparate sources of data. It must be very interesting since the link to pipes.yahoo.com produces a humorous message:
Our Pipes are clogged! We've called the plumbers!
Glad to see a sense of humor.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Advertising Effectiveness
How to allocate sales to tactics?
A while back Kevin Hillstrom posted a challenge to figure out how multiple tactics worked in a multi-channel world. A set of catalog and online sales data was provided for 10,000 customers along with which marketing tactics they received, e.g. catalog, email, postcard, etc. He recently posted an answer.
The most important conclusion is that influence is multi channel. Just like "advertising drives search"
Some thoughts on the solution provided by Grigorios Tsoumakas.
1. It is based on the correct premise that the problem is one of allocation; not prediction. This makes it both simpler to create an answer as well as to explain. "Sales are allocated to individual tactics in accordance to their influence across all possible combinations of tactics."
2. The solution makes an assumption that one tactic was dependent on a previous one. In this case the second email was assumed to be delivered to the same customers as email 1. The data suggest that this is valid since everyone who received email 2 also received email 1.
3. Organic sales were those among customers who received no marketing. Simple but probably understated. It is close to saying that the level of sales would be $2000 if advertising was withheld. "Unattributed" might be a better label in this case.
4. This seems to be along the lines of an 'observed vs expected' problem. I wonder if there is an extension there to include costs to get to financial effectiveness.
5. No catalog sales were attributed to email. Given the large amount of sales that are attributed to the catalog, I'd 'expect' some. But the numbers don't lie.
So what would regression have told us? (And yes I was one of the 500 who downloaded the spreadsheet.)
1. It is fairly easy to distinguish between online and catalog buyers. If they shopped in one channel, they weren't very likely to shop in the other.
2. A large number of customers did not purchase in the month of interest, but were marketed to. Inclusion of these '0' sales will bias most models tremendously. So, should we look at only those sales that occurred in a given channel and only include the customers who made them? "Yes" since the problem is one of allocation, not prediction.
3. Mathematically, the role of the 'catalog' was interesting after segmenting the data. For online sales the presence of a catalog depressed sales -- okay, you're expecting that. For catalog sales, the presence of a catalog also depressed sales --- welcome to the vagaries of regression.
The math is about minimizing the error in the model, not about explaining it to your boss.
A while back Kevin Hillstrom posted a challenge to figure out how multiple tactics worked in a multi-channel world. A set of catalog and online sales data was provided for 10,000 customers along with which marketing tactics they received, e.g. catalog, email, postcard, etc. He recently posted an answer.
The most important conclusion is that influence is multi channel. Just like "advertising drives search"
Some thoughts on the solution provided by Grigorios Tsoumakas.
1. It is based on the correct premise that the problem is one of allocation; not prediction. This makes it both simpler to create an answer as well as to explain. "Sales are allocated to individual tactics in accordance to their influence across all possible combinations of tactics."
2. The solution makes an assumption that one tactic was dependent on a previous one. In this case the second email was assumed to be delivered to the same customers as email 1. The data suggest that this is valid since everyone who received email 2 also received email 1.
3. Organic sales were those among customers who received no marketing. Simple but probably understated. It is close to saying that the level of sales would be $2000 if advertising was withheld. "Unattributed" might be a better label in this case.
4. This seems to be along the lines of an 'observed vs expected' problem. I wonder if there is an extension there to include costs to get to financial effectiveness.
5. No catalog sales were attributed to email. Given the large amount of sales that are attributed to the catalog, I'd 'expect' some. But the numbers don't lie.
So what would regression have told us? (And yes I was one of the 500 who downloaded the spreadsheet.)
1. It is fairly easy to distinguish between online and catalog buyers. If they shopped in one channel, they weren't very likely to shop in the other.
2. A large number of customers did not purchase in the month of interest, but were marketed to. Inclusion of these '0' sales will bias most models tremendously. So, should we look at only those sales that occurred in a given channel and only include the customers who made them? "Yes" since the problem is one of allocation, not prediction.
3. Mathematically, the role of the 'catalog' was interesting after segmenting the data. For online sales the presence of a catalog depressed sales -- okay, you're expecting that. For catalog sales, the presence of a catalog also depressed sales --- welcome to the vagaries of regression.
The math is about minimizing the error in the model, not about explaining it to your boss.
Dashboard Examples
What's new in the display of information?
Ran across a blog dedicated to the concept of dashboards. What's nice in the Dashboard Spy is the collection of visuals showing the craft in action. The emphasis is on design and implementation (as opposed to defining the metrics in the first place) with a couple of templates you can download to use as wireframes.
Nice service by a 1%er.
Ran across a blog dedicated to the concept of dashboards. What's nice in the Dashboard Spy is the collection of visuals showing the craft in action. The emphasis is on design and implementation (as opposed to defining the metrics in the first place) with a couple of templates you can download to use as wireframes.
Nice service by a 1%er.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Customer Service - Not
What happened to falling on your own sword?
We're working with one of the ad serving technologies. Today it had some problems and posted the following error message:
I really like the fact that they blamed me for a server error.
We're working with one of the ad serving technologies. Today it had some problems and posted the following error message:
Please contact the server administrator, customersupport@mediaplex.com and
inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done
that may have caused the error.
I really like the fact that they blamed me for a server error.
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